Thursday, February 13, 2014

NDX 100 @ Lifetime Resistance...again

Along with the Dow chart I posted yesterday the Nasdaq 100 is also trading at an extremely pivotal level.  The first chart is a chart that reverts all the way back to the NDX inception. The second chart shows the weekly channel resistance that coincides with the monthly.

NDX Lifetime Monthly
NDX Weekly

What needs to happen between now and tomorrow's close...

Here it is in 2 charts. The markets must close the week under /ES 1800 or all time highs are next. Period.

/ES weekly

/ES daily (w/ weekly and daily resistance shown)

Wednesday, February 12, 2014

The Bears Last Stand...

I don't have much to add from the post earlier.  The SPX closed down .49 pts and remains underneath the ST resistance levels between 1820-23.  The /ES close was a little trickier and it still remains a couple pts higher than I would like. I think tonight we will know our answer if a pullback or continued move higher is next. Meanwhile I wanted to post 2 final charts of the Dow. These charts are the most meaningful thing the bears still have in their favor.

Dow Jones Monthly

This chart clearly displays the Jan close and break of the uptrend that had been in place since the 2009 lows.  The chart below is a weekly closeup of the same broken trend line. As you can see, the Dow was pushed back by this new monthly resistance. If bears can get the SPX back under 1800 this week that should mean that the correction will continue shortly.

Dow Jones Weekly Closeup

Maximum Pain...

That's what it feels like being short the /ES right now.  I'm experiencing a much larger drawdown than I should be at the moment.  My only saving grace was I did put a stop in on 1/3rd  of my /ES position a@1804.50.  I had a limit order in this morning short that 1/3rd back @ 1822.  This is the only thing I seem to have done right in the past several days.  There is now significant support underneath the market around 1795-1800. That's the spot, no doubt about it. As of right now, I believe the SPX could trade down to that level and possibly bounce back 1 more time to 1815-1820. I put annotations on the charts explaining what I think might happen next. 

SPX Daily

/ES Daily

/ES Weekly closeup

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Waiting for divergences...

If markets are destined for lower prices in the near term, a move lower should occur within 24 hrs with almost no upside from here (/ES 1800). Divergences in momentum and price are just now appearing on the intraday charts of the /NQ and since it has been the market leader since Feb. 3rd, I want to focus on it's price action the most. There needs to be some follow through to the downside today even if it is only for a few hrs. That will build in some more momentum divergences and hopefully trigger a resumption to the sell off. Time is ticking for the bears.

/NQ 4hr
/NQ 2hr

Monday, February 10, 2014

Short /NQ @ 3574.25

My total short exposure is now above 300%. I would not recommend trying this at home. I can do it because I have an extremely large payoff versus the risk that I'm taking. To play with leverage you have to have strict discipline or you will get knocked out of the game quickly.
/NQ Daily

Sold Feb(weekly) AAPL 530/535 Call Spread @ $2.30 credit => expires this week

AAPL is trading at the upper level of where I expected. If it trades much over 531 I will be forced out of both credit spread trades. AAPL should give back a couple bucks between now and the close if I am going to be right.
AAPL Daily Chart