Thursday, July 11, 2013

Setting up for the ride back down...

I'm back to 200% short from /ES 1665.50. The markets have fulfilled my upside projections. The move lower could start at any moment.
The RUT is even more bearish.

Monday, July 8, 2013

Expect a move towards 1670...

In the very ST, I am expecting a pull back towards 1620 or so where I will probably go long for a ride towards the May highs. This is the area I want to re-short the market. I tweeted a couple weeks ago that if the VIX closed the week below 17.50 it would suggest that pullback was over. It hindsight it now appears that was correct.
After seeing the VIX close below that 17.50 level and noticing the OEX hold support, I came to the conclusion that a move towards the May highs was probable. I did not go long because I wanted to be sure and I don't mind risking some of the upside to be more certain. The two charts below are a long term and short term chart of the OEX

The McClellan Oscillator has now broken it's downtrend and suggests that a new ST cycle has begun.
In conclusion, I believe the market has entered into a new ST up/sideways cycle that should last until early to mid August. I think the top end of the range will be 1670 on the SPX and volatility will still be present. The next 4 weeks or so should provide lots of trading opportunities for those that are ready.

closed /ES short @ 1597.50

I closed my short position last WED. but failed to post it real time because I was unable to. I will be putting up a blog post explaining why I closed the short in anticipation of a market move towards 1670. So far it was the right move. I was planning on doing this post last Fri. but got side tracked with other things. I will post my reasoning for the ST change in thought shortly.