Monday, July 8, 2013

Expect a move towards 1670...

In the very ST, I am expecting a pull back towards 1620 or so where I will probably go long for a ride towards the May highs. This is the area I want to re-short the market. I tweeted a couple weeks ago that if the VIX closed the week below 17.50 it would suggest that pullback was over. It hindsight it now appears that was correct.
After seeing the VIX close below that 17.50 level and noticing the OEX hold support, I came to the conclusion that a move towards the May highs was probable. I did not go long because I wanted to be sure and I don't mind risking some of the upside to be more certain. The two charts below are a long term and short term chart of the OEX

The McClellan Oscillator has now broken it's downtrend and suggests that a new ST cycle has begun.
In conclusion, I believe the market has entered into a new ST up/sideways cycle that should last until early to mid August. I think the top end of the range will be 1670 on the SPX and volatility will still be present. The next 4 weeks or so should provide lots of trading opportunities for those that are ready.

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