Friday, June 28, 2013

out of bonds...

I was stopped out @ 135'11 for a nice gain. I still believe bonds have bottomed for the most part and will look to re-enter long in the coming days.  As for the stock market, bears need to see a weekly close above 17+ for the VIX to ensure that the correction is not over

Friday, June 21, 2013

200% Short /ES @ 1583.25

While there could be some more upside early next week I still believe there is a lot of downside to the markets. Rather than get too cute with my entry I decided to go ahead and re-short at these levels, knowing that a push towards 1605 or so is possible before we head lower.

Thursday, June 13, 2013

Last chance...

I believe today or maybe just this morning, is the last shot for the bulls to delay the inevitable one or two day mini crash that could take the SPX to the 1460-1480 area. Breadth is oversold again but the VIX is breaking out.  If it can hold 17.50 for the the 1st 2-3 hours of trading, you could see a serious meltdown begin by the afternoon.  The other scenario is a breakout that can't hold above 20 for the rest of the week, resulting in a big move starting Monday or Tuesday.

Friday, June 7, 2013

Where the market is headed...

In the coming weeks the Dow should find support at it's 1937 trend line and the VIX should run into resistance at it's 2011 horizontal breakout point.

Wait and see...

I've shorted more /ES at the top of today's range to bring my cost basis to 1616.50. If the 1640 area doesn't hold we could see a move back toward's the highs. 

Wednesday, June 5, 2013

Bounce or Crash...

A 1987 style crash or some sort of bounce. That's what the McClellan Oscillator is saying.  The arrows I have drawn on the oscillator show the moves I expect over the next week or so.

200% Long /ES @ 1609

This is a ST trade. I could be out and back short as early as tomorrow. 

Potential Pause Before The Storm...

The main reason for my pause in bearishness is due to the fact that the RVX is not leading the VIX higher.  This may correct itself as early as tomorrow but for the here and now I am willing to let the market tell me what it's next move is.  As you can see in the charts below, the VIX was attempting a breakout above the April highs while the RVX was NOT confirming the move.  This COULD indicate a day or two reprieve from the market sell off. Tonight's action in the futures should give some further clues as to if there will be better shorting opportunities in the days ahead.

Covered /ES shorts from 1670.25 @ 1607.75

There is a confluence of intraday support in this area for the SPX. I am not supremely confident it will hold.  I will be watching the markets very closely for clues to what's next. I will re-short based on how the VIX price structure looks over the next few hours or days.

I also covered approx. 1/3 of the BAC Aug. Puts I bought the other day @ .66