Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Bot TSLA @ 121.77

I think there is about $20 of upside from here. I have been waiting for a sign that a st bottom was in and I think today's reversal off the lows is it.

Friday, November 22, 2013

Bot BAC Jan 15 Puts @ $.27

The 2008 crash pivot is now being tested. I will watch this closely because while I do expect a major move to the downside there is a possibility that it won't occur until later in the 1st quarter of 2014. Regardless of when, this area will cause the stock to crater.

Thursday, November 21, 2013

Same story in 3 charts

It's been talked about ad nauseum by a few cautious bears (including me) that the major risks in the equity markets are to the downside not missing some next great bull market. Well, just for good measure I'm going to repeat myself one last time through these 3 charts.

Thursday, November 14, 2013

covered TSLA short @ $137.68

I'm covering my TSLA short because I want to raise some cash. I am leveraged in the futures and as of right now down on my /ES short. Even though I believe the markets are pushing on a string I want to raise reinforcements. I think TSLA will probably trade down to 120-125 before this decline is over. With my luck it will do it tomorrow. Nonetheless, this stock will probably not trade with the overall market at any given time so even if the markets crater it is more than possible this cult classic will trade higher.

Market's Last Gasp

This move higher might not last the day and I am almost certain it won't last until the end of the month. The extremes in the markets are rivaled by only a handful times in history and all of them were multi year (sometimes decade) tops. I could post a hundred charts that show the exact same situation technically. But all I need is two of the most important stock market index.
S&P 100 Lifetime

S&P 100 Weekly

Tuesday, November 12, 2013

All Equity Indices Rejected @ Resistance and Moving Lower

The expectation for lower trading volume is pretty much widespread this week n the equity markets and that could wreak havoc with traders. Futures are finally responding to resistance in a negative way and are moving lower after hours. Who knows if it will stick but if it does could be the beginning of something much larger than 99% of market participants are prepared for. Watch 1740-45 in the /ES. If we are below that level by 8am cst. then this move lower is for real. If not, then the possibility of a head fake will be higher.
4 hr e- mini S&P 500 Futures

4 hr mini Dow Futures

4 hr e-mini Nasdaq 100 Futures

4 hr mini Russell 2000 Futures

Monday, November 11, 2013

Fork in the road part II (Japanese Version)

I failed to mention earlier today that I was stopped out of my short /NKD position. What appeared to be be a break of long term support on Thursday was erased Friday and Today.  However, Japan is not out of the woods yet and needs to continue to add gains or risk crashing through support and moving straight down to 12000. The Nikkei is still dangerously close to 13750 and if it trades down to that level again it will plunge right through it. The charts below show the support level that stopped Thursday's Nikkei decline.
/NKD Daily

As of now, the best course of action is wait. The channel support that reversed the Nikkei might only last for a couple days. If that is what happens then today's highs should be about the end of the bounce. There could be another day or two of a rally but price can not go above 14600 or the likelihood of an intermediate decline diminishes. So after reviewing the charts the smartest thing to do is pause and let the market tell us what it wants to do. Committing to a short or long position now has no real edge and would be the equivalent to guessing.

Fork in the road...

The Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones futures are touching intra-day resistance. Lately the Dow has been leading so taking cues from it's price action will likely give an early heads up to market direction. A close by the /YM above 15740 today could lead to even more short term strength. However, don't be surprised if selling begins to push the markets lower later in the day as sellers respect short term resistance.
/YM (Dow Jones) 4hr

/NQ (Nasdaq 100) 4hr

Friday, November 8, 2013

Sold TLT call for $.37

The large gap down in TLT today was obviously not expected. The set up I referred to yesterday has a win rate of above 80%. Just goes to show you that nothing is perfect. The markets are getting back to a more neutral price zone. If we close at the current levels then I suspect another assault on the highs will occur.

Nikkei Bounce

I have been covering and re-shorting the /NKD on this pop. The 14250 is important and if the ultimate destination for the markets is down, this level +/- 50 pts should provide resistance.
/NKD 4 hr

Thursday, November 7, 2013

Shorted 2nd half of /NKD @ 14000

I'm playing the downward momentum here because I believe the Nikkei is in a situation where oversold becomes even more oversold. Look for another ugly day in Japan when the Nikkei opens later tonight.

Shorting Japan

I went ahead and shorted my 1st half of /NKD @ 13970. There could be another 200 points to the downside today. Shit is about to get real

Shorting More MU right here, right now

No explanation needed. Lifetime resistance is being tested once again.
Lifetime Monthly

YTD Daily

60 Min

Capt. Hook sending TLT to $110 quickly

I bought Dec 106 calls when TLT was under $105 yesterday because it has just completed one of the most reliable and bullish formations I know of; The hook pattern. There are several nuances to the set up but as you can see today it is off to the start that I would expect from this particular pattern. Look for TLT to have a few strong days that take it to new relative highs. It should hit 110 at min by next week.

Daily close up 

Daily 6 month chart


I've been adding to my ISRG short via a Jan 385-395 call spread. I used the proceeds to add to my Jan 290 puts that I first purchased a month ago. The position is still relatively small but if I'm right and the stock craters, the gains should be quite large.

300% Short /ES @ 1765 and /NQ 3360

I missed the set ups that occurred at the market highs this morning. The charts below show the short term set ups that I believe can be used for entries into longer term short positions.

/ES 4 hr Chart
/NQ 4 hr Chart
/YM 4 hr Chart
/TF 4 hr Chart

Covered /ES Short @ 1770.75

I'm taking a loss on my short this morning. It looks like the market is setting up for some type of short term blowoff type move. I will look to short the futures again when a legitimate set up presents itself. If I had to guess I would say 800-805 on the OEX should terminate this move.

Wednesday, November 6, 2013

Bot TLT DEC 106 Calls @ $.73

This is a ST trade. I think TLT will gap up tomorrow.

Sold BBRY @ $6.58

It might still make it to $7+ but I don't like the way the stock is acting here and I think there is a chance that it breaks Mon lows by tomorrow. I'll take my .10 cent profit and go home

Tuesday, November 5, 2013

After Hours Car Crash...

The bearish TSLA set up that confirmed at today's close nailed the move lower after hours. This move lower should kick off a multi week/month sell off that finally concludes around $70-80. I plan on covering my short position somewhere in the $100-125 area. I know that is a very broad range but there are several things I want to look at when the stock enters that area before I decide to buy the stock back. The 1st chart shows the bearish close at multiple resistance and the confirming bearish set up.
Short Term Daily Chart

2yr Daily Chart

Buy Set up on Oil Fast Approaching...

We'll have to wait and see what the longer term implications are for the broader financial markets but oil looks to be setting up for a multi week rally on a dive below $90.

Monday, November 4, 2013

Bot BBRY @ $6.48

I just bought BBRY for a swing trade of 1-3 days. I will know very quickly if the trade fails. This is the lower end of support on a intra-day basis.

Abnormal Oversold TICKQ Data

Friday showed (on a ma basis) some of the most oversold nasdaq tick readings I have ever seen. It is no surprise that we are seeing a pause in any downward movement in the stock market. However, if we do not see a big rally in the markets by Wednesday then the message will be a very negative one. This will be one indicator to watch closely over the next 48 hrs.

Friday, November 1, 2013

MU has no upside from here...

I'm short MU from $17.60. I will add to it on any move above $18. There is $3-5 in profit to the downside. When things turn you will see this stock crater.

FB risk is primarily to the downside

FB still has plenty of downside risk and as long as it stays below the most recent swing high, I think it is a great short. The 55-60 Bear Call Spread is a great way to play it and that's what I did by selling the Dec spread for a $.90 credit. Shorting the stock outright is something I'm looking at doing also if it trades higher in the coming days.