Monday, November 11, 2013

Fork in the road part II (Japanese Version)

I failed to mention earlier today that I was stopped out of my short /NKD position. What appeared to be be a break of long term support on Thursday was erased Friday and Today.  However, Japan is not out of the woods yet and needs to continue to add gains or risk crashing through support and moving straight down to 12000. The Nikkei is still dangerously close to 13750 and if it trades down to that level again it will plunge right through it. The charts below show the support level that stopped Thursday's Nikkei decline.
/NKD Daily

As of now, the best course of action is wait. The channel support that reversed the Nikkei might only last for a couple days. If that is what happens then today's highs should be about the end of the bounce. There could be another day or two of a rally but price can not go above 14600 or the likelihood of an intermediate decline diminishes. So after reviewing the charts the smartest thing to do is pause and let the market tell us what it wants to do. Committing to a short or long position now has no real edge and would be the equivalent to guessing.

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