Monday, March 11, 2013

Volatility is at alternative support level

The VIX traded below the intermediate support last Thursday and Friday, continuing it's fall even further today. However, wrong as I was believing volatility had bottomed last week, it is now near the maximum alternative support level and should close the week much higher than today. The weekly and hourly charts of the VIX and VXN show the support levels that volatility is trading at. While it is possible that volatility begins to rise from these levels and the markets don't fall, that is not a bet I would make.  Market distortions and imbalances are building upon an already shaky foundation. Investors and traders who have been riding the market higher the past couple weeks are putting themselves in a precarious position by holding long positions overnight. Financial market conditions are almost identical to April 2010 and July 2011. Both instances led to months worth of gains vanishing in a few days/weeks. Remember, markets ride an escalator up and take the elevator down.

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