Tuesday, April 9, 2013

Risk of a market crash has almost never been higher

Mea Culpa. I underestimated the reflex rally off the recent pullback. There is no excuse other than I missed some great warnings that suggested one last move to the recent highs was a sure thing. The following 3 charts are intraday price of the SPX.

Notice the obtuse triangle that price managed to create. If I had been looking closer several days ago, I would have known that a rally to news highs was almost a 100% sure thing.

Note the perfect touch of the support line that extends from the left starting point through the exact halfway point of the right side of the triangle.  This type of formation almost always has an explosion higher after holding support. This example was no different.  However, now that the price objectives have been met, We should see the market begin to crumble.  Once we take out 1540, it will be a swift move to 1510-20.

The area where the red arrow points will soon become formidable resistance, on an intraday basis.

Another chart I failed to examine closely was the OEX (S&P 100). The chart I posted yesterday of the SPX showed that it had indeed closed right at resistance.  However, as I have noted on more than one occasion, the real index leader in the market has been the OEX.  It did not reach it's intraday resistance until today. As you can see, once it tested the underbelly of the red channel selling came in almost immediately.

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